Mehul Kamdar

Mehul Kamdar

Data scientist, developer, writer, bibliophile.

On Bill Joy’s pessimism in 2000, Peter Thiel on problems in tech, on Reliance Jio, and private schooling in India

“Having struggled my entire career to build reliable software systems, it seems to me more than likely that this future will not work out as well as some people may imagine. My personal experience suggests we tend to overestimate our design abilities.”

Bill Joy, Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us, WIRED, April 2000

“It is a paradox of our time that the path to radical progress begins with moderation. Extreme optimism and fatalistic pessimism may seem to be stark opposites, but they both end in apathy…. Not only do our actions matter, I believe they matter eternally. If we do not find a way to take the narrow and moderate path, then we may find out that stagnation and decadence were all that kept immoderate men from stumbling into the apocalypse.

Peter Thiel, Back to the Future, First Things, March 2020

  • Bill Joy’s Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us essay from April 2000 in WIRED.
    • I was reading an article about vi and emacs, and remembered this article by Bill Joy (creator of vi, and co-founder of Sun Microsystems). The singularity did not come in the ensuing 20 years after that article, and it might not in the next 20. But perhaps we ignore him at our peril.

  • Peter Thiel’s review of Ross Douthat’s book in Back to the Future.

  • Ben Thompson’s Stratechery on Jio in India.
    • It ignores most of the “on-the-ground” politics and the industrial complex which is the reality of a conglomerate like Reliance and the Indian government, but it is still a thoughtful read.
  • Paul Graham’s interesting essay on the four quadrants of conformism.
    • The paragraph on Silicon Valley and social media seems a bit too much praise of Silicon Valley and a pot-shot at the media, but overall a worthwhile read for sure.
  • Central State Foundation’s report on the State of Private Schools in India. There’s a ton of good stuff in here. Quick highlights:
    • Nearly 50% of students enrolled in private schools (compared to under 30% in 1993). 74% of students in Maharashtra and Kerala attend private schools.
    • Over 90% of these pay less than Rs. 2k (~$27) per month in school fees.
    • But the private school market is still worth ~$23b. Similar to the vale of the e-commerce sector at $24b!
    • 88% of public schools don’t even have ONE teacher per grade. Over 18% of private schools similarly don’t have at least one teacher per grade.
    • The performance statistics are too depressing yet all too expected (and mostly taken from the ASER reports). The learning outcomes & income relationship is as expected, but surprising that learning outcomes are so poor even among the richest quintile (who presumably can afford the right resources).
    • Sadly, this low performance is still better than in govt schools. Parents need help in sorting good private schools from the lousy ones. Need performance indicators.